A realtor fears that the Canadian housing market is so overheated that it could burn the whole thing down.

Adam Major, managing broker with Holywell Properties, says that what led to the U.S. housing crash in 2008 might be happening now in the country.

Major believes that the government “probably should have done something already”.

“I do hope they can come up with a way to cool the maket rather than letting it burn too hot for too long, because it could create more problems in the long run,” Major told the Straight in a phone interview.

Major is also the CEO of Zealty.ca, a real-estate tracking site operated by Holywell Properties.

The realtor recalled that one of the causes of the U.S. housing crash were “teaser” or adjustable-rate mortgages. 

“In the U.S. in 2005 to 2006, somewhere between 30 percent to 40 percent of all mortgages sold were ‘teasers’, where the rates started out low, but went up after two years,” he explained.

Buyers then found out that after their rates went up, they could not afford the payments.

With the value of their houses going down, they could not refinance their mortgages.

Here in Canada, many home buyers are currently getting mortgage rates at 1.5 percent and below.

“We are now in a position where nearly 100 percent of the mortgages being sold in Canada could be ‘teaser’ rate mortgages,” Major noted.

The managing broker with Holywell Properties pointed out that if one has a 1.5 percent fixed rate mortgage and rates increase to 3.5 percent, payments go up 30 percent.

Major recalled that just about two or three years ago, Canada had mortgages of 3.5 percent. In 2007, the rate was almost six percent.

He said that at a mortgage rate of 5.5 percent, payment goes up 63.5 percent.  At 7.5 percent, payment more than doubles, Major noted.

“I don’t think mortgage rates are going to 7.5 percent, but they could easily go back to 3.5 percent,” he said. “Could they go to 5.5 percent?  That would mean someone paying $3,000 per month now will have to cough up $4,905 per month on renewal.”

Major said that what worries him are Canadians currently “stretching” to buy homes at 1.5 percent mortgages.

“What’s going to happen in five years if interest rates are 3.5 or 4.5 or 5.5 percent?” he asked. “They’re going to have to pay a lot more just to maintain their houses.”

Meanwhile, a lot of aspiring buyers will not be able to afford mortgages “if interest rates go to 5.5 percent, which is not that far out of reality”.

“There are going to be no buyers at the current prices,” he said. “Nobody will be able to afford anything at the current prices.”

What’s going to happen next is that “people will just sit on their wallets”.

“If you can’t afford your mortgage payments, nobody else is going to be able to buy that property,” Major said.

This then “creates a downward pressure on prices when people need to sell but there are no buyers”.

“If the average mortgage rate gets to 5.5 percent in Canada in five years, we could see house prices fall 40 percent,” Major said.

In some hot markets like Vancouver and the rest of Lower Mainland of B.C., resulting house prices could be “half of what they are now”.

Major noted that Canadian housing is more overvalued than U.S. properties were before the 2008 market collapse, which cut American home prices by around 34 percent.

“We could see a bigger housing price correction than what the U.S. experienced,” he said. “If U.S. housing fell 34 percent, how much could Canadian housing fall?”

The Bank of Canada dropped its interest-setting rate to 0.25 percent on March 27, 2020 to ease the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.

The central bank has maintained the rate, which is the lowest, and indicated that it will stay at that level until 2023.

However, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has observed “excess exuberance” in the country’s housing market.

“What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolated expectations, when we start to see people expecting the kind of unsustainable price increases we’ve seen recently go on indefinitely,” Macklem said on February 24 at a meeting with chambers of commerce in Edmonton and Calgary.

But Macklem also said that the market, at the time, was still a “long way from where we were in 2016-2017 when things were really hot”.

In March 2021, the market in Metro Vancouver got even hotter.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has reported that March 2021 sales were the “highest monthly sales total ever recorded in the region”.

A total of 5,708 homes sold last month, a 126.1 percent increase from the 2,524 sales in March 2020.

Last month’s transactions also represented a 53.2 percent increase from the 3,727 homes sold in February 2021.

Home buyers are subject to a mortgage stress test in which they have to qualify for a higher rate.

Major said that while this stress test offers “protection”, he doubts whether it’s enough.

“One of the big trips with mortgages and renewing them is, what if your house goes down in value in five years?” he said. “Is the bank going to renew at the same rate if the amount you owe is more than the house is now worth? That’s potentially challenging.”

Major noted talk about the anticipated easing of COVID-19 restrictions, which will open the doors again to foreign buyers of Canadian property.

“You hear all these buyers are coming from Hong Kong and that might be true. But is it enough to…keep inflating the housing prices here? I’m skeptical that it is.”

Major noted that there is a saying that goes, “never catch a falling knife”.

“If you can buy for less in six months’ time, you’ll wait six months,” Major said. “So that’s the same way for Canadians and people coming from wherever else in the world: they’re going to wait to buy if prices start to go down.”

The Straight has previously reported about homes selling over $500,000 on top of their listed price.

If some thought nothing is ever going to beat that, here’s a surprise.

A home in East Vancouver recently sold $872,134 over its original asking price.

The top-up alone is enough to buy a townhouse or perhaps two condos.

The two-storey home at 3285 Victoria Drive sold on February 24 after eight days on the market.

Oakwyn Realty Ltd. listed the five-bedroom, four-bath residence on February 16.

The listing price was $1,728,000.

A buyer picked up the property for $2,600,134 million.

The transaction was tracked by Zealty.ca, a real-estate information site owned and operated by Holywell Properties.

Holywell’s managing broker Adam Major informed the Straight about the sale of Victoria Drive.

According to Major, the deal for the home located across from Trout Lake is a “candidate for craziest individual deal”.

B.C. Assessment placed the 2021 value of the property at $1,741,000 as of July 1, 2020.

There may be buyers out there who have a fear of missing out as the market continues to sizzle.

They may be tempted to enter into bidding wars.

Major’s advice: don’t.

“For buyers, I would recommend caution,” he said.

The market may have become too hot that the government could decide to do something about it.

“There is a risk that the federal government steps in to cool the housing market,” Major said.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has observed “excess exuberance” in the country’s housing market.

“What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolated expectations, when we start to see people expecting the kind of unsustainable price increases we’ve seen recently go on indefinitely,” Macklem said on February 24 at a meeting with chambers of commerce in Edmonton and Calgary.

The central bank dropped its interest-setting rate to 0.25 percent on March 27, 2020 to ease the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic.

The bank has maintained the rate, which is the lowest, and indicated that it will stay at that level until 2023.

“We are starting to see some early signs of excess exuberance, but we’re a long way from where we were in 2016-2017 when things were really hot,” bank governor Macklem said on February 24.

Holywell’s Major noted that the central may be “only six months late” in issuing a “warning about the housing market overheating”.

“But better late than never.  At some point, the rules could change and it could happen overnight,” Major said.

Major cited the case of New Zealand.

In April 2020, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted lending restrictions to prop up the economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The measure eased credit flow, and led to strong sales in the country’s housing market, with price increases setting new records.

Moving to cool the market, New Zealand’s central bank decided to reimpose so-called loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions.

Starting in March 2021, banks can allocate only 20 percent of their residential mortgage lending to owner-occupiers with a down payment of 20 percent.

Moreover, banks can lend not more than five percent to investors with a down payment of less than 30 percent. Starting on May 1, the deposit requirement for investors will increase to 40 percent.

Here at home, Holywell’s Major said that the last week in February 2021 was the “busiest for weekly sales since 2019” in markets served by the Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Chilliwack real estate boards.

According to Major, 1,998 sales were reported in the combined areas of the three real estate boards.

“In the last week of February 2020, there were 1,109 sales, so we are up 82 percent over the same week last year,” he said.

Zealty.ca tracking also indicates that the last week of February 2021 was the highest since January 15, 2021.

Major also noted that the Canada Mortage and Housing Corporation has been “awfully quiet”.

He recalled that CMHC predicted at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 that housing prices would fall 18 percent.

“The exact opposite happened,” Major said.

He speculated that an increase to down payment requirements by CMHC could be come “any day”.

So again for buyers out there, caution is the word.

“Are you sure you want to win a bidding war on a teardown in the sticks to wake up to the next morning to discover the feds changed the rules so nobody else makes the same mistake?” Major said. 

(This story is sponsored by plant me..)

Preparing an average of 21 meals every week can be exhausting and monotonous, which makes ordering takeout seem very enticing. But unfortunately, many rely on nearby fast food joints that serve items stuffed with unhealthy fats and disturbing amounts of sodium.

Instead of consuming takeout that leaves you feeling sluggish and full of regret, try plant me.’s fresh and healthy premade meals. Think plant-based bowls, slow-roasted cauliflower in creamy cashew sauce, homemade taro chips with dip, and much more.

The fast-casual vegetarian eatery opened its doors in the midst of the pandemic with the goal of providing nutritious food to the community. Since its soft launch in November, plant me. has been operating out of Our Town Café in Vancouver’s Mount Pleasant.

“We grew up and now raise our families here. The pandemic forced us to think about what was truly important,” says Jeff Holmes, owner of plant me. “This includes our health, our families, and supporting our corner of the world. Our Town Café and plant me. is allowing us to do that.”

The sustainably minded restaurant not only offers takeout options for one but it also creates colourful and delicious meals for families of two and four. These ready-to-eat meals allow tired and uninspired home cooks to take a night off. Each family meal comes with your choice of entrees, a salad, and snacks to share. 

Those who are following a vegan or vegetarian diet are sure to appreciate plant me.’s filling comfort food options. Dark and rainy nights call for a large bowl of the eatery’s trademark churry—a hybrid of chili and curry.

Plant me.’s taro chips with fresh Almond Trickotta and Beet Cashew dip, makes the perfect snack as you research destinations to visit once travel bans are lifted.

Along with prioritizing our health and relationships with loved ones, the pandemic has taught us that supporting local and small businesses can help our community flourish. “We partner with local vendors like Fife Bakery, the Juice Truck, Main Street Brewing Company, the Flourist, Coligny Creek Egg Co., the Wood Shop co-op, and more,” says Holmes. “Additionally, our rotating resident artist and feature roaster program show that we’re beyond committed to supporting local.”

Plant me. is offering 10 percent off of all takeout orders to celebrate its grand opening from February 25 to  March 25, 2021. Click here to place an order.

For updates, follow plant me. on Instagram.

(This story is sponsored by DanceHouse.)

Watching a captivating dance performance is a therapeutic activity that many of us could benefit from in the midst of the pandemic. The captivating live art form can bring forward emotions, stimulate memories, and spark meaningful conversations.

Because the pandemic cancelled all of our plans, we’ve been given plenty of time to devote to our hobbies and personal interests. Instead of spending endless hours scrolling on your phone, how about using this opportunity to learn more about the history of dance in Canada?

In order to continue bringing dance to Canadians during the pandemic, DanceHouse has partnered with the Harbourfront Centre in Toronto, the National Arts Centre in Ottawa, and Danse Danse in Montreal. Through this partnership, Digidance was born.

By combining expertise, experience, and international networks, the four organizations were able to pivot to presenting exceptional dance content online. This allows dance enthusiasts to enjoy the organizations’ extraordinary work from the safety and comfort of their own home. 

DanceHouse’s next Digidance presentation is a vintage one—an iconic Canadian piece from 1984, which profoundly made its mark on audiences everywhere. Joe, choreographed and produced by the late Jean-Pierre Perreault (1947–2002), presents an image of the human condition through contemporary dance.

The powerful performance will be streaming to audiences worldwide from March 17 to 23, with tickets available for purchase online.

Perrault was known as one of the most influential and highly regarded contemporary dance artists and choreographers in the country. His passion for design and painting allowed him to flawlessly link the dancers’ movement to the sound, lighting, and set.

Joe previously toured in Ottawa, Toronto, and Europe but the breathtaking performance never made it to a Vancouver stage. This is because before 2008, Vancouver was not on the pan-Canadian touring map for national and international companies. DanceHouse has since then filled that gap, allowing Vancouverites to attend world class performances without having to board a plane.

The contemporary dance piece, Joe, is performed by 32 professional dancers wearing work boots, long coats, and hats. The group of talented performers move in a compact mass that individuals occasionally attempt to free themselves to escape a foreordained destiny. Joe was remounted several times, which speaks to the importance of the work as managing a company of 32 dancers is no easy feat.

This archival and exceedingly influential performance can help virtual attendees deepen their understanding of dance in Canada. Joe has been described as “a work that has become a hallmark of contemporary Canadian dance and a masterpiece for all time,” by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review in 1996.

Though the video in its vintage resolution has aged slightly, the expressive and memorable performance of Joe remains young at heart.

To purchase a ticket to the virtual performance of Joe, click here.

For more information on DanceHouse and other upcoming events, visit www.dancehouse.ca/.